BSO: Neal vs. Morse

It's now official that longtime Western Mass Congressman Richard Neal has a 2020 challenger in Holyoke Mayor Alex Morse. The temperature is rising fast, with opening salvos over Holyoke's chronically under-performing schools already launched by both sides. Here are the now estranged Democratic duo back in happier times:

No doubt there will be punches aplenty thrown in this guaranteed barn burner of a contest. The primary election is not until just over a year from now, but as of the outset Neal must be regarded as the clear front-runner. You can't spend three decades in office as Neal has and not form a lot of deep ties in the community. Compared to Morse's eight years in office, Neal's thirty year incumbency is going to be hard to overcome on the basics on which campaigns are won or lost, such as organization and fundraising. Neal has already got millions stashed away for his re-election, with millions more to come if needed, so while Morse can probably raise enough money to get his message out, it will still be hard for the challenger to overcome the incumbent's ability to virtually spend at will.

As for endorsements, political people in their vanity imagine that their endorsements will sway voters. In real life they seldom do (voters are perfectly capable of thinking for themselves) but they do matter in that every politician has their own personal network of donors and volunteers who can be placed in the service of the candidate they endorse. It's a safe bet that almost all the biggest names, along with their donors and volunteers, will go to Neal. A few might go for Morse, especially in Holyoke, but even they will be running a risk. Should a renegade insider break for Morse, and Neal ultimately wins, you can be sure that Neal would cast that betrayer permanently into the political wilderness. Even many local pols who secretly prefer Morse will hesitate to stick out their neck for him, for fear that it may be chopped off in the end.

But Morse is not without his political resources. He is popular in Holyoke, and can probably carry his hometown pretty easily, although not necessarily by a landslide margin - Neal too has Holyoke ties. Morse is also likely to do well in the deep blue north Valley hilltowns in the district, where Neal has never been particularly popular. These are mostly new constituents whom Neal inherited from former Congressman John Olver after Olver's district was abolished and combined with Neal's after the last census. These upscale liberal bastions were used to getting constant attention from Olver, who was called "the work horse" for his relentless presence in the district and frequent town meetings. Morse is exactly the kind of charming people-person those lefties will love.

Yet, even if Morse successfully wins over these cobalt blue hilltowns, they simply don't have very large populations. Neal, on the other hand, has the 800 pound electoral gorilla of Springfield in his corner, by far the largest city in the district and which always goes for Neal by landslide margins. You can also place most of the surrounding Springfield suburbs in the same category. It will take an awful lot of northern hilltown victories by Morse to add up to a number that can overcome Neal's massive southern Valley base.

However, a year is a long time and there may be unforeseen wild cards played by both sides before it's all over. Looking ahead, whoever wins the Democratic nomination, they will still have to overcome a Republican challenger in the fall, John Cain, shown here with the man he wants to replace.

Like Morse, Cain will have his work cut out for him if he ends up facing Neal. If lightning strikes and it's a Morse vs. Cain contest, the race between the two young pols in the fall will be very interesting indeed.

I'm not sure what to say about this coffee cup in Springfield Mayor Dom Sarno's office that appeared in the background of a TV news story.

Did you hear about that long lost Aerosmith van that was recently discovered in Chesterfield? I spotted it on Main Street in Hamp and instantly recognized it as something I had seen before in the olden times of the 1970's.