The New York Times has released their official appraisal of where the re-election races of Pioneer Valley Congressmen Richard Neal and John Olver stand as of October 15. While Republicans in much of the country are enjoying unprecedented high poll numbers, the Times reports that according to their appraisal, coming into the home stretch both Neal and Olver are poised for landslide re-election victories.
Saying that "based on polling, expert forecasts, fundraising, past election returns and other indicators" in the closely watched 2nd Congressional District, where the entrenched Neal is being challenged by businessman Tom Wesley, the Times says that Neal is leading with 71% of the vote with Wesley trailing 44 points behind with only 27%. On the basis of those numbers, the Times declares that they are 100% certain that Neal will be re-elected.
The Times regards the Olver effort, where he faces local Tea Party favorite Bill Gunn, to be more competitive, but just barely. Dismissing leftist third party candidate Michael Engel as entirely irrelevant, the Times declares that Olver is leading with 66% of the vote to Gunn's nearly 32%. This leads them to conclude that there is a 99.9% chance that Olver will be re-elected, not quite the 100% certainty the Times has about Neal, but still very discouraging to those hoping for change.
Challengers Tom Wesley and Bill Gunn.
But is it really so hopeless? I think the Times is mistaken in totally dismissing the role of Engel's leftist third party challenge in the Olver race. If Engel pulls a significant number of disillusioned Obama liberals away from Olver, Gunn's chances may prove better than forecast. And the experts have been underestimating Tom Wesley from day one, when everyone said that Wesley's GOP primary challenger, Dr. Jay Fleitman would win the GOP nomination easily.
In any case it will be the voters of the First and Second District who will make the final determination on November 2nd of who will represent them in Congress - not the New York Times.
To read the full NYT Neal-Wesley appraisal click here. To read the full NYT Olver-Gunn appraisal click here.
Luke Arrivel was playing at the Haymarket in Northampton this past weekend.
A Deadhead in the UMass library.
I saw this red-tailed hawk in a tree outside Bartlett Hall at UMass this afternoon.
A local organization closely identified with the so-called "Tea Party" movement has been turned down by all the candidates but one in a forum intended to educate the public about the state representative race in the West Springfield/Chicopee area. According to the following press release:
Rep. Don Humason and candidate Vogel.
State Representative Candidate Dean Vogel will be the sole candidate to participate in a forum hosted by the Chicopee area group of the Western Mass 912 Project.
Vogel is one of three qualified candidates vying for a vacant seat in the 6th Hampden District, which includes all of West Springfield, and parts of Chicopee and Springfield. The Candidates’ Forum will take place June 3 from 6:00 to 8:00 p.m. at the new Chicopee Public Library on 449 Front Street. It is a non-partisan event that is free and open to the public.
According to Barbara Perez, event coordinator and area facilitator of the Chicopee group, the forum is designed to educate the public about important issues, and to learn about the candidates so we are better informed when we go to the polls to vote.
According to Perez, members of the group are pleased that Vogel agreed to attend the forum. Formal invitations and calls went out to all the candidates, she said. But the other Republican, Greg Neffinger, and the Democrat, Michael Finn, declined to attend.
“Dean will have ‘the floor’ all to himself,” Perez said. He will have the opportunity to define himself and the campaign in contrast to the other candidates.”
Congratulations to Vogel for having the courage and integrity to meet with all of his potential constituents in order to appraise their views, and shame on the cowardly Neffinger and Finn for not doing the same.
Meanwhile, the Northampton Democrats were doing grassroots outreach this morning downtown.
The weather was gorgeous as I crossed the Calvin Coolidge bridge yesterday on the bus.
The other night however a violent storm passed through the Valley, causing this tree to fall and block the woodland way into downtown Northampton.
Of course, being an intrepid traveler, I found a way around the tree through the woods. However, there was no way for cars to get around this fallen tree on Calvin Terrace.
On the UMass campus a tree by Herter Hall was knocked over.
Even the grass was torn up.
The national situation ain't so good either.
Jorma Kaukonen was in Northampton last weekend. Here is his diary entry.
Sunday, May 16, 2010 Northampton, Massachusetts
Alrighty then... Quite the hectic day today with non-stop traffic from Wilmington, Delaware almost to the the Northampton exit. Once at the iron Horse, we rushed through sound check, ate and hit the stage. Here is our set list:
The Iron Horse Northampton, Massachusetts Sunday, May 16, 2010
First Set: 1. Been So Long 2. There’s A Bright Side Somewhere 3. Prohibition Blues 4. Izze’s Lullaby 5. I Belong To The Band 6. Uncle Sam Blues 7. Sea Child 8. Full Go Round 9. I Know You Rider
Second Set:
1. Serpent Of Dreams 2. The Terrible Operation 3. Trouble In Mind 4. Things That Might Have Been 5. 99 Year Blues 6. River Of Time 7. More Than My Old Guitar 8. Good Shepherd 9. Genesis 10. Nine Pound Hammer 11. Encore: Come Back Baby
In the normal course of events, politicians are first elected to office and then they get arrested. But here in the bizarro world of Valley politics, first comes the perp walk, then comes the nomination papers.
Local Tea Party hero Bill Gunn
Yet an arrest record may actually work to the advantage of William Gunn of Ware, who will officially announce this weekend that he is running for U.S. Congress against incumbent John Olver. Gunn came to national attention last month when he was arrested in the balcony of the House of Representatives in Washington D.C. for yelling at the lawmakers below to "Kill the Bill" meaning the government healthcare takeover legislation which was under consideration at the time. Gunn and his companion in civil disobedience, Dave Sanders of Wilbraham, became instant folk heroes among the quite active Tea Party movement here in the Valley. Gunn summarizes his campaign platform as follows:
I am running for the position of United States Representative for the first district of Massachusetts. I am currently collecting signatures and I can use all the help I can get.
We are going to oust John Olver, and the PEOPLE are going to take back the house. The house of representatives is supposed to be comprised of CITIZEN REPRESENTATIVES; people like you and me. It is time to show a renewed reverence for the Constitution and bring spending under control and actually CUT SPENDING ON EVERY GOVERNMENT PROGRAM.
The tax burden needs to be reduced, and if any are going to pay an income tax, ALL must pay an income tax. Only then will the majority of the people start voting for fiscal restraint.
Can Gunn win? Olver has faced better known challengers in the past and won re-election handily, but this is an unpredictable year when the winds of change are blowing at gale force. Gunn will also get a ton of free publicity when his case goes to trial. However, former State Representative Christopher Asselin of Springfield is unlikely to be able to turn his former arrest record into a political plus, but that hasn't stopped him from announcing that he will be running to reclaim his old job. As explained by Masslive:
With 18 months in prison, $140,000 in restitution and one major corruption scandal behind him, former state Rep. Christopher P. Asselin is primed for a political comeback.
Breaking a long public silence, the 40-year old Democrat announced on Monday that he is considering running for his old seat in the 9th Hampden District, which straddles the Springfield and Chicopee border.
Asselin, the youngest son of a well-known political clan, won two terms on Beacon Hill before being named in a 122-count indictment accusing him, his father, mother, wife, four siblings and others of looting the taxpayer-financed Springfield Housing Authority for a decade.
After pleading guilty to bribery, theft and fraud conspiracy charges in 2007, Asselin was given an 18-month prison term. His father, Raymond, director of the authority until 2004, was ordered to serve 10 years behind bars.
Here is the first half of an interview with Asselin yesterday on the Bax and O'Brien Show, in which Asselin comes out swinging by essentially accusing incumbent Sean Curran of being a liar and a phony.
Here's the second half, where O'Brien asks Asselin about his alleged "mental issues":
Can Asselin rise from the ashes? Well, Springfield makes up most of the district, and Springfield voters are notorious for electing and re-electing bad guys, so it's impossible to say that Asselin has no chance. But incumbent Curran is popular, and is sure to remind voters of all the sordid details of the Asselin scandal. I would put Chris Asselin's chances at no better than one in three.
But to top it all off, after a sordid domestic scandal last year devolved into incidents of public violence that sank the re-election hopes of Agawam Mayor Susan Dawson, most observers thought that her political career was over. Not so, apparently, as Dawson is now running for State Senate! But hey, if Gunn can be arrested in the halls of Congress and run as a hero, and Asselin can walk out of prison and announce his own race, then why shouldn't Dawson run as well? Agawam voters delight in dirty politics and she was the mud-wrestling queen they loved to hate. The electorate may choose Dawson just for her future entertainment value.
I took these pictures in Northampton's Haymarket Cafe early this morning.
Tea Partiers protesting in Springfield in January.
The national media was reporting yesterday afternoon that two people in the gallery of the chamber of the U.S. House of Representatives were arrested for shouting slogans in opposition to the government healthcare takeover at the lawmakers below. What wasn't discovered until today is that the two are Western Massachusetts residents - Dave Sanders of Wilbraham and William Gunn of the town of Ware. The disruption was reported by nearly all major media but the most concise account of the incident, which included expressions of outrage from Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank, appeared in the D.C. journal Roll Call:
Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) said Sunday that Republicans acted like “clowns” by egging on tea party protesters in the House gallery who were dragged out for shouting out against health care reform. A protester “stood up and started yelling, ‘kill the bill!’ … and then the Republicans started cheering him on,”
Frank vented to reporters after the incident. “You have dozens of Republicans standing and applauding and cheering on a guy who was disrupting the proceedings and resisting court officers. It’s really disgraceful.” Although Frank referred to only a single protester, Capitol Police spokeswoman Sgt. Kimberly Schneider later said two men were arrested in the incident. William Gunn and David Sanders, both from Massachusetts, were charged with disruption of Congress, Schneider said.
Rowdy tea party protesters have flooded the Capitol grounds in recent days to oppose health care reform; group organizers on Sunday were encouraging attendees at a rally to get gallery passes and bring their message directly to lawmakers.
A visit to the website of the activist organization to which both activists belong The Western Mass 912 Group shows photographs of both of the men who were arrested yesterday in the Capitol. Here is Sanders of Wilbraham:
This is William Gunn and presumably a young Gunn.
Gunn looks familiar to me. I suspect this is him waving a "Don't Tread on Me" flag outside of the appearance of Barney Frank at UMass recently.
If so it would be ironic that it was Frank who would later denounce him and Sanders in the national media. Both the Western Mass teapartiers have been released from custody and are back in the area and posting on the 912 Group website, where they are receiving mostly congratulatory messages from supporters. Most of the comments reflect the sentiment that their act of civil disobedience was justified, as in the spirit of this one quote by Orwell that someone posted: "Speaking the truth during times of universal deceit is a revolutionary act." - George Orwell
No, I did not go to the big parade yesterday in Holyoke, but the ever intrepid Kristen Beam did and here are a few of her snaps.
Naturally the media was out in full force, but this time they were also participants, not just observers. Of course if you want good weather for the parade invite the weathermen to march! Here are the Channel 22 folks Ryan Walsh, Brian Lapis and Adam Strzempko.
Dave Madsen and Eric Fisher of TV40.
Springfield Mayor Dom Sarno and his police department.
The rock star himself, Senator Scott Brown.
Representative D. Humason and Westfield Mayor Knapik.
When the crowds departed, only the trash remained.
The Music Section
Once in a while you get shown the light in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
I consider Bob Dylan to be one of the great poets of modern times. Some people have claimed that he's not really a poet but just a songwriter. Yet, from a historic perspective there is really no distinction, since originally all poetry was intended to be sung. In fact, all good poetry (except free verse) should be able to be set to music, whether or not the poet ever actually composed any for the poem.
In any case, I think it is very possible to consider many of Dylan's songs as musical poetry, especially songs like Mr. Tambourine Man or some of the stuff from Blood on the Tracks. It was this admiration for Dylan's songwriting that made me glad to have the chance recently to read Bob Dylan's first book, the intriguingly titled Tarantula.
Alas, to my surprise the title is the most interesting part of the book, which overall is an unbearable, incomprehensible bore. The Wikipedia has this to say about this "novel" which might be better described as just a collection of words.
Tarantula is an experimental novel by Bob Dylan, written between 1965 and 1966. It employs stream of consciousness writing, somewhat in the style of Jack Kerouac, William S. Burroughs, and Allen Ginsberg. One section of the book parodies the Leadbelly song "Black Betty". Reviews of the book liken it to his self-penned liner notes to two of his albums recorded around the same time, Bringing It All Back Home and Highway 61 Revisited.
This is not accurate, the liner notes on those albums were far superior to anything in Tarantula. Nor is the comparison to Kerouac justified, his stream of consciousness novels were never this sloppy or obscure. The Wikipedia continues:
Dylan would later cite Tarantula as a book he had never fully signed up to write: "Things were running wild at that point. It never was my intention to write a book." He went on to equate the book to John Lennon's nonsensical work In His Own Write, and implied that his former manager Albert Grossman signed up Dylan to write the novel without the singer's full consent.
It's good to know that Dylan didn't really intend to write a book, because he didn't really write one. The one comparison between Dylan and Kerouac that is accurate is that the worst insult ever hurled at Kerouac, delivered unjustly by Truman Capote, does in fact apply to Dylan, "That's not writing, that's typing."
Nor is it fair to compare Tarantula to the witty and intelligent John Lennon book, since Tarantula is neither. Tarantula is an obvious rip-off and a bunch of nonsense that Dylan typed up to justify a contract he never wanted to fulfill in the first place. It was then released by a greedy publisher just to make a quick buck. Again from the Wikipedia:
Although it was to be edited by Dylan and published in 1966, his motorcycle accident in July '66 prevented this. Numerous bootleg versions of the book were available on the black market through 1971, when it was officially published. In the early 21st century, it was translated into French.
The "early 21st century" reprinting was no doubt done for yet another round of rip-offs designed to cash-in on the 2003 release of Dylan's second book, the infinitely superior Chronicles.
In sharp contrast to Tarantula, Chronicles shows Dylan to be every bit as good a writer as one would have hoped. In his autobiography Dylan writes with passion and insight about subjects he cares about, and leaves one wishing he would write more.
But one would never wish for another Tarantula. In 2003 Spin magazine did an article called the "Top Five Unintelligible Sentences From Books Written by Rock Stars." Dylan came in first place with "Now's not the time to get silly, so wear your big boots and jump on the garbage clowns."
But is the book really completely worthless? In a literary sense yes, it is. But socially it may have had some value when first released. No doubt many people bought it simply to carry it around and look cool while sitting in coffeehouses and pretending to read it in hopes of starting conversations with interesting and sexually attractive people. Hey, books have been purchased for much worse reasons, and by less deserving authors.
Proud Turnout
I continue to be impressed by the great turnouts reported nationwide for the "Tea Party" protests against the increasing deterioration of our liberty and financial security. Despite the attempts by some major media and the political class to downplay the protests, you can be sure that today in the White House and the halls of Congress they are nervous. I was especially impressed by the turnout in Springfield.
And as usual, Deadhead Ann Coulter was right on target:
I had no idea how important this week's nationwide anti-tax tea parties were until hearing liberals denounce them with such ferocity. The New York Times' Paul Krugman wrote a column attacking the tea parties, apologizing for making fun of "crazy people." It's OK, Paul, you're allowed to do that for the same reason Jews can make fun of Jews
-Ann Coulter
Clean Past
I saw this old fashioned washing machine at the Carriage Shops in Amherst. It had a date on it of 1888.
Better Than Jail
On King Street today I ran into my friend Alex. He was in rehab with me. The device on his leg is to allow law enforcement to monitor him.
You may think he looks young to have already been through drug rehab, but frankly I was surprised to see in rehab the number of people at 20 who had been through drug horrors I didn't experience until I was 40.
Today's Video
Members of the Amherst band ZEBU bouning to explore the strange while doing a Marvin Gaye cover.
