A lot of attention has been paid to Hampshire College's ongoing fiscal crisis and the threat it poses to the school's future. But in the short term, what has been the economic effects on the upper Pioneer Valley of admitting just a token freshman class of around 15 students? Those missing are students who in past years used to run all around Amherst and its sister communities spending money.
In order to estimate the degree of economic damage, first, we need an exact figure of enrollment numbers before the fiscal crisis hit. Thanks to Google, I was able to determine that Hampshire had 1,191 students just two years ago in 2018. And what is the enrollment now? Surprisingly, despite further Google searches, I couldn't discover the exact number for the current year. However, numerous news sources put Hampshire's current enrollment at between 700 and 750 students. So, for the sake of my calculations, I split the difference and went with an approximation of 725 students.
Subtract today's 725 students from the 1,191 in 2018, and you come up with 466 vanished students. Now, according to another Google search, every student attending Hampshire has to pay a tuition of $50,238 per year. Few pay that much out of pocket, with loans, scholarships and grants helping considerably in many cases. But wherever that money comes from, it all goes into Hampshire's operating budget, with which they pay salaries and other expenses that pour money into every aspect of the local economy. So how much tuition money normally spent in the Valley has disappeared due to the enrollment downsizing? I fed 466 x 50,238 into Google and got....
Great Googley-moogely - it came out to a whopping $23,410,908!!!
But is that all? Not the entire economic impact of Hampshire College is through tuition money. What about the money students spend in the local economy that has nothing to do with tuition or other school related expenses? The National Association of College Stores estimates that the average college student will spend between $655 and $1,168 per year on personal expenses not directly related to school. That sounds a little low to me, considering the rising costs of pizza and beer, but we'll take their word for it.
So, splitting the difference again between the low and high ends, we come up with a rounded average of $912 per student per semester. Multiply that by 466 and you come up with $424,992. That missing money comes right out of the bottom line of the stores, bars and restaurants not just in Amherst, but Northampton, Hadley and all of the Valley's cities and towns.
Of course, even these figures don't account for all of the lost revenue. The Town of Amherst, for example, is anticipating losing money from water fees, what with 466 fewer students taking long, hot showers. Considering that there are probably many other such small variables draining the local economy throughout the Valley, we can conservatively add at least another million to the level of losses. Therefore, it appears that at least $25 million dollars has been sucked out of the local economy by Hampshire's fiscal woes.
Lately, there has been an encouraging level of enthusiasm towards creating a Hampshire recovery and the New England Commission of Higher Education has held off, for now, on its threats to withdraw Hampshire's accreditation. But alas, the thing that's always such a bitch about money problems is that only money can fix them. All the encouraging, inspiring and uplifting rhetoric really doesn't mean shit to a tree if the cash just ain't there when the bills come due. Only time will tell whether Hampshire College will successfully reverse its downhill slide. Yet whatever happens long term, presently the area is already experiencing a Hampshire recession with a $25 million hit already delivered to the local economy.
I was saddened to hear of the passing of Neal Peart, best known as the drummer for the band Rush, but also a longtime advocate for libertarian causes and ideas.
No comments:
Post a Comment