The New York Times has released their official appraisal of where the re-election races of Pioneer Valley Congressmen Richard Neal and John Olver stand as of October 15. While Republicans in much of the country are enjoying unprecedented high poll numbers, the Times reports that according to their appraisal, coming into the home stretch both Neal and Olver are poised for landslide re-election victories.
Saying that "based on polling, expert forecasts, fundraising, past election returns and other indicators" in the closely watched 2nd Congressional District, where the entrenched Neal is being challenged by businessman Tom Wesley, the Times says that Neal is leading with 71% of the vote with Wesley trailing 44 points behind with only 27%. On the basis of those numbers, the Times declares that they are 100% certain that Neal will be re-elected.
The Times regards the Olver effort, where he faces local Tea Party favorite Bill Gunn, to be more competitive, but just barely. Dismissing leftist third party candidate Michael Engel as entirely irrelevant, the Times declares that Olver is leading with 66% of the vote to Gunn's nearly 32%. This leads them to conclude that there is a 99.9% chance that Olver will be re-elected, not quite the 100% certainty the Times has about Neal, but still very discouraging to those hoping for change.
Challengers Tom Wesley and Bill Gunn.
But is it really so hopeless? I think the Times is mistaken in totally dismissing the role of Engel's leftist third party challenge in the Olver race. If Engel pulls a significant number of disillusioned Obama liberals away from Olver, Gunn's chances may prove better than forecast. And the experts have been underestimating Tom Wesley from day one, when everyone said that Wesley's GOP primary challenger, Dr. Jay Fleitman would win the GOP nomination easily.
In any case it will be the voters of the First and Second District who will make the final determination on November 2nd of who will represent them in Congress - not the New York Times.
To read the full NYT Neal-Wesley appraisal click here. To read the full NYT Olver-Gunn appraisal click here.
Luke Arrivel was playing at the Haymarket in Northampton this past weekend.
A Deadhead in the UMass library.
I saw this red-tailed hawk in a tree outside Bartlett Hall at UMass this afternoon.
It's been so many years since entrenched south-Valley Congressman Richard Neal has had to campaign for re-election, that it appears as though he can't even recognize major landmarks from own district. At least that is the impression given by a campaign flyer mailed to Springfield voters this week. Neal's opponent Thomas A. Wesley had this to say in a press release about Neal's confusion over local geography:
RICHARD NEAL FOR CONGRESS MAILING FURTHER HIGHLIGHTS HIS DISCONNECT WITH THE SECOND DISTRICT
HOPEDALE—Tom Wesley today questioned Richard Neal’s commitment to the 2nd District as a result of some glaring errors in a direct mail piece Neal's campaign recently sent to voters. The oversized postcard, with the title “Effective and Accessible for Springfield,” featured six different categories: jobs, technology, transportation, economic development, redevelopment, and healthcare.
The first sign that Congressman Neal is out of touch with the Second District is the picture accompanying the “Transportation” blurb. He refers to a federal investment in I-91 and I-291 “to make local highways safer and less congested" but it features a picture of I-91 in Hartford, CT!
Under “Healthcare,” Neal highlights the $150,000 that was earmarked for Mercy Medical Center in Springfield. And, while that figure may be correct, the structure in the picture is about 1,200 miles south of Springfield. Instead of the Mercy Medical Center, the Neal campaign features a picture of the Vehicle Assembly Building at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida!
Richard Neal has been in Congress for 22 years. That is a lot of time away from the Second District. His campaign brochure that is paid for by his own political operation demonstrates how far he has in fact drifted away from us. He cannot even identify his hometown hospital.
While he may not have personally designed the mail piece, he signed off on it. Too often, I speak with voters who have never met, or even seen, Congressman Neal in their town. He has failed to return their calls and their letters. He has failed to listen to their concerns. He has failed to be their congressman.
Looks like Neal needs to do a little riding around the district to refresh his memory before he prepares his next campaign mailing! So where does the Neal/Wesley race stand now? My spies haven't sent me any inside polling data yet, but for what it's worth the war over who has the most Facebook fans is currently being won by Neal, with 1,782 to Wesley's 759.
Northampton had a Columbus Day parade this week.
These guys dressed as Revolutionary War soldiers attended the ceremony held after the parade at Pulaski Park.
Naturally all the local pols were there, including Northampton Mayor M. Clare Higgins (far left).
An old vinyl Monkees record discovered at a tag sale for one dollar.
A Republican in a wheelchair entered a restaurant one afternoon and asked the waitress for a cup of coffee. The Republican looked across the restaurant and asked, "Is that Jesus sitting over there?" The waitress nodded "yes," so the Republican requested that she give Jesus a cup of coffee, on him.
The next patron to come in was a Libertarian with a hunched back. He shuffled over to a booth, painfully sat down, and asked the waitress for a cup of hot tea. He also glanced across the restaurant and asked, "Is that Jesus over there?" The waitress nodded, so the Libertarian asked her to give Jesus a cup of hot tea, "My treat."
The third patron to come into the restaurant was a Democrat on crutches. He hobbled over to a booth, sat down and hollered, "Hey there, honey! How's about gettin' me a cold glass of Miller Light?" He, too, looked across the restaurant and asked, "Is that God's boy over there?" The waitress once more nodded, so the Democrat directed her to give Jesus a cold glass of beer. "On my bill," he said.
As Jesus got up to leave, he passed by the Republican, touched him and said, "For your kindness, you are healed." The Republican felt the strength come back into his legs, got up, and danced a jig out the door.
Jesus also passed by the Libertarian, touched him and said, "For your kindness, you are healed." The Libertarian felt his back straightening, raised his hands, praised the Lord and did a series of back flips out the door.
When Jesus walked towards the Democrat, the man jumped up and yelled, "Don't touch me - I'm collecting disability!"
Dr. Jill Stein, Green Party candidate for Governor
You don't have to be a stoner to recognize the destructive effects that the criminalization of marijuana has had on our culture and civil liberties. Fortunately, full legalization of the mild intoxicant is within reach this year as California votes on an initiative entitled Proposition 19 that will make it as legal to buy pot as it is to buy beer.
Meanwhile, longtime Valley cannabis activist Terry Franklin (below) has compiled a list of pro-legalization candidates in Massachusetts:
California, with its Proposition 19, is the place to vote this year; but for us voters in the Northeast, I've put together this list of candidates in our own area who support marijuana legalization.
Not everyone is a single issue voter, but please keep this issue in mind when making your decision. Most of these people are "3rd party" candidates -- Libertarians have been on board for decades -- and it's heartening to see a number of Greens joining them this year. Even without winning, minor party candidates can have an effect: One or both of the major parties see themselves losing voters, and will try to shift their platform in an effort to get them back in the next election.
I tried to make the list as comprehensive as possible. However, there is no doubt I have missed someone -- especially in the more local races. Carefully evaluate the positions of all the candidates on your ballot before going to the polls on Election Day. Even if someone has not come out for legalization, they may have a position on a lesser issue such as medical, decrim, or hemp which is better than their opponent.
MASSACHUSETTS
Governor........(G) Jill Stein Congress........(I) Mike Engel........1st C.D. Congress........(D) Barney Frank......4th C.D. Congress........(R) Sean Bielat.......also in the 4th State Sen.......(D) Cythia Creem......Newton area State Sen.......(R) Craig Spadafora...Melrose area State Rep.......(I) Daniel Melick.....Amherst & Granby State Rep.......(I) Jonathan Loya.....Hopkinton area State Rep.......(I) Ron Madnick.......Worcester area State Rep.......(G) Scott Laugenaur...Pittsfield area State Rep.......(I) Jim Pillsbury.....Framingham area State Rep.......(I) Bob Underwood.....Springfield area
In addition, 73 towns in MA have non-binding, but important, advisory questions, "PPQs," on the ballot, concerning either legalization or medical marijuana.
In other political news, the Richard Neal re-election congressional race against Tom Wesley (above left with Holyoke's Chief Scott) is quickly evolving into the premiere political battle of the southern Valley. Take a look at Wesley's latest and most devastating political ad yet:
In another important development in that race, Wesley has announced the co-chairs of the Valley section of his campaign with the surprise appointment of former Springfield City Councilor Barbara Garde (below right).
From a Wesley campaign press release:
Former Springfield city councilor Barbara Garde and Virginia Neill, a widely respected small business owner and community leader, will serve as co-chairs of the campaign. Both leaders will focus much of their efforts towards supporting the Wesley organization’s rapid growth in the western portion of the 2nd District.
“As our national and local economy continues to struggle, it’s incumbent upon us all to re-think and challenge the status quo, operate-as-usual, mindset. I believe strongly that Tom Wesley provides a clear and very reasonable alternative to Congressman Neal’s 22 year record. It’s why I have not only endorsed Tom’s candidacy, but have committed myself to see to it that I do everything possible to see him elected this November,” Barbara Garde, a former Democrat, said.
Garde once served as a co-chair for Domenic Sarno’s mayoral campaign in Springfield and was positioned to serve in the same position for Richard Neal’s congressional bid in 1988. Since Neal faced no challenge that year, the co-chair position was not necessary. She currently serves as the Vice President of Marketing for Springfield-based AmBCare Ambulance Service.
I last saw Garde in person back in June of 2007. I took her photo, which didn't come out too good, and filed this report:
Tuesday I was in Springfield all day, starting in the morning with the Springfield Control Board meeting at City Hall and at night at the official kickoff rally for the Karen Powell for City Council campaign. In between I sort of schlepped around my old stomping grounds of ol' Pine Point, going to lunch at Tony's Pizza on Boston Road. There I ran into former City Councilor Barbara Garde. She told me that she's been drinking heavily since she left office.
Just kidding. Actually she said she's enjoying life after politics very much.
Is it any wonder why local politicians dislike me so much? Yet way back in 1993 I wrote these words of praise about Garde in a "report card" I made up for The Baystate Objectivist, complete with nicknames, of the Springfield City Council, or "clowncil" as we called it in those days.
Guardian Garde - With only one year on the Council behind her, it isn't clear exactly where on the political spectrum to place Barbara Garde. Yet if there is one characteristic passing consistently through the ideological mish-mash it is Garde's fierce independence. A potential swing vote on many issues, Garde is courted by all political factions with equal fervor. But it's probably a waste of time trying to call this Councilor's tune. When it comes to matters of principle, this lady don't dance.
And she still doesn't, with Garde once again showing great courage in urging other disillusioned Democrats to join her in backing Tom Wesley.
This week at UMass a table was set up in the Campus Center to support Charlie Baker for Governor.
In Northampton this morning supporters of incumbent Deval Patrick were campaigning.
In what appears to be shaping up as a strong Republican year, not all Democrats are proudly running on the party label. However Amherst's State Rep. Ellen Story is an exception.
A cynical bumpersticker on a car parked on an Amherst street.
Portrait of a hipster at the Mystery Train in Amherst by Alice Ware.
Here's a Jeff Ziff video from the recent Skid Row concert in downtown Springfield.
The Massachusetts conservative website Red Mass Group has been running a series of analysis recently of the 2010 Western Mass races for U.S. Congress. This is what they have to say, with my own two cents thrown in as well. The First Congressional District is currently represented by Democrat John Olver, who is being challenged by Republican Bill Gunn and third party candidate Michael Engel.
DISTRICT ONE
Prediction: John Olver (D) 70%, Bill Gunn (R) 25%, Michael Engel (I) 5%. Unfortunately, this is not a good district for a Republican and Bill Gunn has neither the financial resources nor the history of electoral success at this time to have a credible chance to win.
Here's my analysis of their analysis - It is true that Olver will be hard to beat in this very liberal district, but I don't think Gunn's prospects are as bleak as they claim. While it's true that Gunn lacks name recognition and experience, indications are that this is a year when being an outsider can be a virtue. Gunn will also get a boost from third party candidate Michael Engel, a candidate who, incredibly enough, is running to the left of Olver.
Therefore, liberals who want to cast a protest vote in this anti-incumbent year, but who are repelled by Gunn's tea-partyish views, can still desert Olver and cast a protest vote for Engel without compromising their leftist ideology. So if Engel ends up riding the anti-incumbent wave enough to reach double digits, Gunn may well find himself within striking distance of an upset victory.
To read the full report on District One click here.
Surprisingly the Second District is the more hotly contested of the Western Mass contests, with longtime incumbent Richard Neal facing two strong possible GOP challengers. Here's what Red Mass Group has to say:
DISTRICT TWO
Republican Primary Prediction: Tom Wesley 62% Jay Fleitman 38% General Election Prediction: Richard Neal (D) 59%, Tom Wesley (R) 41%.
The Massachusetts 2nd Congressional district has been trending more Republican over time. The towns in south Worcester County become more Republican and a larger percentage of the district. In 2008, it voted slightly more Republican than the 3rd congressional district, formerly held by Peter Blute (R). Both Wesley and Fleitman have quality resumes and are running real campaigns. The Republican nominee will have raised six figures, done a fair amount of retail politics, and caught a good year in 2010. Unfortunately, Neal's near $3 Million on hand will prove difficult to overcome. I expect a decent showing, but not victory at this time.
My analysis of their analysis: Before Neal can be challenged there will be a September primary where either Fleitman or Wesley will be eliminated. I agree with Red Mass Group that Wesley is probably ahead, but not by the nearly two to one margin they claim. Whoever wins, it is important that the primary leave no hard feelings, because the GOP will have to be fully united to have any chance to oust as firmly entrenched an incumbent as Neal.
The real trick for the GOP nominee is to cut significantly into Neal's powerbase in Springfield, where the city's corrupt Democrat Party machine is certain to deliver a lopsided electoral landslide on Neal's behalf. A similar landslide is likely for Neal in Northampton by the non-corrupt but partisanly passionate Democrat organization, although if Northamptonite Fleitman is the nominee he may be able to cut into that a little as a hometown favorite. Whoever the nominee is, the GOP's goal will be to try to keep Neal's expected Springfield/Hamp landslides to a low enough margin so that GOP victories in the Republican leaning suburbs can hopefully compensate for their big city losses. It's not an impossible feat - Scott Brown carried the district in the special election in January, despite being crushed in both Springfield and Northampton, by successfully carrying nearly all of the suburban and hilltowns.
To read the entire Second District report click here.
Speaking of Scott Brown, I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw on the bus the other day a person proudly displaying a Martha Coakley sticker. I thought everyone scraped those off in embarrassment long ago.
Here's a song about Amherst set amidst the power lines of Pelham.
In the continuing fallout from south valley Congressman Richard Neal's big money bashon the Cape last weekend, the Boston Globe has published an editorial scolding him for his ethical blindness. While conceding that such tawdry fundraising is commonplace, the Globe argues that Neal should none the less raise his ethical standards:
But in seeking to become one of Washington’s top dealmakers, Neal shouldn’t also accede to the capital’s money culture. He shouldn’t sell access to himself. The trading of influence for campaign contributions rightly outrages the public; and while no congressman can operate in a vacuum, Neal must avoid the fund-raising excesses that are open to top D.C. powerbrokers.
His $5,000-a-head “summer weekend on Cape Cod’’ with representatives of special interests at the Chatham Bars Inn was one such excess. It’s one thing to accept contributions from those hoping for favors; it’s another to hunker down with them for a weekend, with a fat entry fee.
Neal is hardly alone in this type of fund-raising. Building a campaign war chest and then doling out contributions to fellow members helps grease the path to plum chairmanships. But there are plenty of ways for Neal to raise funds without explicitly offering closed-door access to himself, and the fact that other members use similar methods doesn’t make it right.
Tom Wesley, one of Neal's opponents for re-election this year, released the following statement:
Last Friday, the Boston Globe reported about Richard Neal’s $5,000-a-head summer weekend with him for donors and lobbyists, but they went a step further on Wednesday editorializing against it. The Globe said that Neal “shouldn’t sell access to himself” and “must avoid the fund-raising excesses that are open to top D.C. powerbrokers,” calling his Cape Cod event “one such excess.”
I have lived in Washington, D.C. before. I know the temptations that lie around every corner, from money to power to physical pleasures. “Potomac Fever” is nothing new, but with the 24-hour news cycle, politicians are being exposed more and more for their moral shortcomings.
I pledge to be different. I am not seeking to be a career politician. I want to go to Congress to be a part of the clean-up crew that will be the 112th Congress and do some great things for the people of the Massachusetts Second District.
Hampenings
I'm surprised and pleased to see that something appears to finally be happening at 48 Main Street in downtown Northampton.
Uncle Margaret's.
Collecting signatures for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Horn player in front of the Haymarket.
With the chilly nights recently the homeless frog needed a blanket!
Big comix sale at Broadside Books.
Sun is setting. Good night, sweet Hamp.
Revolution in the Air
Dann Vazquez captured this image of the revolutionary from the film V for Vendetta in a Hamp window.
Tea Party demonstration on Boston Road in Springfield this morning.
Henning and friends at the Montague Bookmill recently. Photo by Brian Akey.
The election results on Tuesday strongly indicated that the political tide is turning against the Democrats just one year after they swept into office on a wave of "hope" with Barack Obama. Of course, it's best to take these off year election trends with a grain of salt, since political situations are always very fluid and this year's hero can become next year's loser with amazing speed. Still, the Republican romp at the polls earlier this week should give Democrats reason to pause and reappraise their own electoral safety.
Locally, this translates into the surprising development of two - count 'em TWO - people stepping forward to run against entrenched incumbent Congressman Richard Neal, who really hasn't had a strong head to head contest for re-election since Tony Ravosa in 1992. One challenger is Dr. Jay Fleitman, who is the current head of the Board of Health in Northampton.
Dr. Fleitman in Wilbraham
The other is Navy vet Tom Wesley, shown below.
It is hard to tell at this point who is ahead in the contest for the Republican nomination, but for whatever it's worth, Wesley has 103 Facebook friends while Fleitman has only a dozen. On the other hand, the Republican establisment seems to like Dr. Fleitman, as indicated by $250 campaign contributions from both George W. Bush and John McCain as well as this photo of Fleitman posing with Michael Steele, the national head of the Republican Party.
From what I've seen, I agree that Fleitman appears to be the stronger candidate. His MD status and already holding a public position in Northampton give him a stature Wesley doesn't have, at least not in this early phase of things. On the other hand, despite his status as a complete unknown, Wesley appears to have a lot of initial enthusiasm behind his campaign.
In any case the need for a primary will help whichever candidate wins the nomination, because the contest will create a media buzz that will give the winner a higher profile and name recognition than they would have had were there no primary. That assumes of course that Fleitman and Wesley have the sense to focus their attacks primarily on Neal and not on each other.
In any case, it is nothing short of delightful that after nearly two decades of getting a virtual free ride to Congress, Richie Neal will finally have to stand before the voters and explain to them why he deserves another term. And best of all, he will have to do so while debating an opponent who will no doubt ask him the hard questions in a way our local media has rarely done.
So how is Neal responding to his challengers so far? By playing it safe. In accordance with the standard incumbent's political playbook, he is refusing to even acknowledge the existence of his opponents until he absolutely has to, lest he give them any free publicity. Neal's office even refused to respond when the newspaper for UMass, where Neal teaches a journalism class called him to question him about Fleitman. But what he's mostly been doing is grabbing as much money as he can with both hands. According to the Worcester Telegram:
U.S. Rep. Richard E. Neal, D-Springfield, has accumulated the fourth-largest campaign war chest among House incumbents so far in the 2010 election cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a nonpartisan organization that analyzes the campaign finance reports filed by candidates with the Federal Election Commission.
Mr. Neal, who has $2.7 million in cash on hand and has raised almost $750,000 so far this year, is far ahead of the other Massachusetts congressmen, none of whom even makes the top 25 on the list of largest war chests, according to OpenSecrets.org, the center’s Web site.
Mr. Neal, whose district spans the region from Springfield to Milford, is also the only area representative with opposition in 2010. Two candidates — Jay Fleitman and Tom Wesley — are seeking the Republican nomination.
Richie Neal has raised the fourth largest war chest in the entire Congress? That kind of frenzied fundraising makes it look as if Neal's afraid of something. It can't be that he's intimidated by the fundraising of his opponents. Fleitman has reported raising around $35 thousand dollars so far and Wesley $21 thousand. Meanwhile Neal raised nearly $750 thousand dollars in the same period.
But that huge advantage hasn't stopped Neal from seeling as much campaign cash as he can from anywhere he can get it. That's because in these uncertain political times just about anything can happen. If the unemployment rate remains above ten percent going into the elections a year from now, there may be a tidal wave of anti-incumbent sentiment that no campaign war chest, however large, can protect Neal from. That makes the GOP nomination seem less like a booby prize and more like a possible ticket to ride into Congress.
It's Coming
From the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal:
What was learned Tuesday is that the American voter is absolutely, totally, unremittingly disgusted with both political parties. More than anything, the American voter is desperate for political leadership.
Independent voters are spooked and on the run, a political stampede that veered left in November 2008 and now right a mere year later. They will keep running - crushing incumbents, candidates and political models of the left and right - through 2010 and onto 2012 until they find a person or party capable of leadership appropriate to our unsettled times.
And what do we call it when we reach that point when the public finally dumps the Democrats and Republicans and goes looking for a third alternative? We call it "The Libertarian Moment."
Toker News
A rare photograph has surfaced of WHMP talker Monte Belmonte with hair! Apparently he never did have much of it, as seen in this photo of him smoking a hookah in what appears to be a sleazy bathroom somewhere. Since he is simultaneously smoking a tobacco cigarette, what's in the pipe?
Incidentally, people have been so busy bashing Maine for its anti-gay vote that they've neglected to notice a victory against the Drug War in that state. Terry Franklin of Amherst explains:
There were 2 victories in Tuesday's election. Question 5 in Maine passed with 58% of the vote -- expanding the medical marijuana laws in that state, and legalizing dispensaries. In Breakenridge, Colorado, the town voted with an astounding 73% to legalize marijuana (under an ounce). This is not decriminalization, it's legalization, there is no fine. Of course, this puts them in direct confrontation with state and federal officials. The fear of such preemption usually gets voters to oppose any such measures, even if they support legalization philosophically. The fact that so many supported open conflict is delicious! The people are so far ahead of the legislators on this issue.
Today's Video
If you laugh real hard you win the game hands down.
